PGA Tour: John Deere Classic best bets
We find ourselves two weeks away from the year's final major at Royal Troon. As we get ready to celebrate our independence this week, the FedEx Cup race is starting to shape up heading into the final stretch. This week brings us the John Deere Classic and many well-known names are taking the week off leaving the field open for a tournament that has historically seen some longshot winners and top 10s. We will look at the course setup for the week and some stats that play favorably to take advantage of the field this week.
The John Deere Classic is played at TPC Deere Run that puts a high priority on finding the putting surface and knocking down the cup. In my opinion, it is a really fun course that gives us an opportunity to see some great golf and tends to play on trend, which allows us to ride hot props and matchups into the weekend. With an average length of 7,289 yards and fairly large open fairways, placement shots are required and will be somewhat punishing with dense thick bluegrass rough. Shots in the rough drop the birdie percentage in half versus shots in the fairway (at ~25% vs 13%). The most effective comps include Detroit Golf Club and TPC River Highland. Most models tend to disregard the par 3s on this track however I find that to be very overlooked, while there won’t be a ton of birdie opportunities and scoring on the 3’s, some of the elevated pin positions and very tough greens can result in big scores on the short holes. Golfers will need to score on the 3 par 5s that are reachable and will likely see a fair amount of eagle opportunities. I will be basing my model on past performance, and current form with emphasis on sg: putting and sg: approach. With that being said let’s find a few golfers that fit the profile to card a nice performance.
I take a conservative approach to PGA betting versus many who will shotgun winners hoping to hit for a good return. I like to see positive returns every week and not just at the end of the season. I will look for big wins, but a slow steady climb is my priority. As such I like to target props that include the top 20/10. I typically shy away from picking winners unless I find a very compelling argument, and I love playing matchups both round by round and for the full tournament.
Tournament matchups
This is an interesting matchup. Todd doesn’t fit this course well but has seemingly figured it out in his past few appearances. However, I’m not fond of his approach stats and performances this season at comps. This will be Riley’s first time at TPC Deere Run and while he also isn’t gaining on approach I’m giving the slight edge to his putting and comparables.
Pick - Davis Riley (-115) 2U
Another nail-biter. Both have had great comps, and both have played outside of their course fits very well. These are two streaky players that can catch fire when they’re hot. Both have turned in great performances here. McCarthy is slightly better stat-wise on the season but that’s mostly from early season performance that has slacked a bit of late. Poston started slow and is starting to heat up. I’m taking J.T.
Pick - J.T. Poston (-105) 1U
TOP 20s
Many golfers in this group fit the course and have turned in great past performances, but I don’t see the edge in their game this week (Michael Kim and Chesson Hadley to name a couple.)
Nate Lashley +400
I’m a huge fan of where Nate’s game is currently. He falls right in line with strokes gained on approach and on putting boding well for a good performance this week.
Daniel Berger +250
Berger should by every metric be in position for a late tee time on Sunday if not in the final pairing. I actually feel he is an outside favorite to win. I Would potentially take him for a higher finish but I like his value most here. He will need to make some putts this week.
Top 10s
No names here really feel strong enough to take a pick on. Aaron Rai at +225 is likely the safest pick but this course tends to throw surprises that recent performances have less impact. He does have a great fairway pct which should keep him out of trouble and in a position to score.
Tournament Winner
Nothing stands out as far as a tournament winner so I won’t be betting it. If you want to take a great value pick, I like Tyler Duncan at +17500. I plan to post round matchups at least a few hours before play starts for each round so make sure to follow me @loose_bets to catch the live play action each day
