ESPN’s FPI predicts a Tennessee win in Week 3

ESPN’s Football Power Index thinks the Vols have a good shot to pull off the win in The Swamp on Saturday. The formula gives the Vols a 54.1% implied win probability.

Tennessee has not won in Gainesville in 20 years. To put that streak to an end, the team will have to find some consistency on offense. The struggles against Austin Peay are well-documented at this point, but the unit can not be anywhere near that sloppy against the Gators.

Florida’s pass defense has been stellar to this point, but they’ve only played Utah’s backup QB and McNeese State. The potent Vols’ passing offense will present easily the toughest task the Gators have faced to this point. Joe Milton will have to fit throws in tight windows and the receivers can absolutely not drop catchable balls.

On offense, Graham Mertz has been efficient but not overly impressive or flashy. The Tennessee defense should be able to give him hell and have him running around in the backfield all day. If the Vols can dominate at the line of scrimmage, they’ll dominate this game.

The fact that FPI actually favors Tennessee is an interesting development. Before the 2023 season kicked off, Tennessee’s implied win percentage for this game was just 48.9%. There has been a swing of roughly 6 percentage points through 2 weeks of action. It’s not crazy to think the Vols could be favored by FPI for each game other than Georgia if they pull off the victory this week.