Tennessee at Georgia: Final prediction and preview
Tennessee is sitting in the driver's seat of the SEC currently with a chance to make the talks serious this week with a win on the road against the 11th-ranked Georgia Bulldogs in Athens.
The 8-1 Vols are in serious conversation for an SEC championship bid, and ultimately a college football playoff bid, but first you must take down Georgian in Athens. Tennessee has not beaten Georgia since the miracle Hail Mary game in Athens in 2016, and Tennessee could potentially be without their Freshman starting Quarterback Nico Iamaleava but the good news for the Vols is that this 2024 rendition of the Georgia Bulldogs is not what we have seen from Kirby Smart and crew over his tenure with the Bulldogs.
Georgia has had their ups and this year dropping a close one early on to Alabama in Tuscaloosa, bouncing back on the road against the then number one ranked Texas Longhorns, and getting embarrassed on the road against Ole Miss last week. This giving Georgia their first 2 loss season since 2020. Georgia also hasn't lost back-to-back games since 2016, so the Vols have history against them in this one.
Georgia Offense
Coming into the season the Bulldogs were one of the favorites to win it all, after that devastating loss to Ole Miss last week Georgia staring down the face of missing the playoff altogether with a loss to the Vols this week. A huge part of that comes down to the offense's inefficiency to perform at a high level against good football teams like they have in years past. Georgia has been an offense in the past that will wear you down in the run game and throw it down the middle of the field, and this year they haven't been very good at either.
Leading the Georgia Offense is Senior QB Carson Beck who at the beginning of the year was a projected first-round pick, and a consensus top 5 Quarterback in College Football, however this year he has been Quite abysmal at times only scoring 17 TDs while throwing an SEC-leading 12 interceptions. Behind Beck this season they have turned into a pass-first team, which has not fared well for them considering Becks numbers. Protecting Beck this year has been one of the most underwhelming offensive lines Georgia has had in the last decade.
Another huge part of Beck's struggles has been the inability to run the football, which is odd for a Georgia Football team considering they have historically produced some of the best running backs in the nation. Coming into this season they picked up the coveted Florida transfer Trevor Etienne who has been their leading back this year, but his number has been underwhelming, all Etienne will be out for the game against the Vols, which will lead them to lean on the freshman Nate Frazier. Frazier while super talented has struggled with fumbling the ball this year, and behind a rough offensive line, things don't look good for the Bulldogs come Saturday.
The Georgia pass catchers have struggled after losing four of their better pass catchers: star TE Brock Bowers, WR Ladd McConkey, WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, and WR Rara Thomas. All were in the top five targets for Beck Last season. The drop-off is clear as well, as they lead the SEC in drops this year and just haven't seemed to be on the same page as their Quarterback.
Georgia Defense
It is no secret that Kirby Smart's specialty is defense fielding some of the best college defenses over the past few seasons but also in the history of the sport. These defenses have been their identity for years leading them to multiple National Championships. This year while the defense has been great and is still who they have relied on, they are not the Georgia defenses of the past.
Georgia's strength on defense is the front 7 where they have been talented for years. Georgia has a group of linebackers that are among the SEC’s very best in CJ Allen, Jalon Walker, and Smael Mondon Jr who has been banged up all year but was the Dawg's 2nd-leading tackler in 2023. Complementing that group is a deep and experienced defensive line led by veterans Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins and Mykel Williams. The Georgia front 7 has combined this season ranking 21st defending the run and 7th in the SEC in sacks.
Georgia’s secondary while helpful in the run game has not been the best at defending in the passing game this season, as they are fairly young and inexperienced ranking outside of the top 30 at defending the pass. Safety Malaki Starks and Cornerback Daylen Everette are among the most experienced and battle-tested in the SEC, but outside of those two the Bulldogs field two Freshmen and a Sophomore in their secondary who have really shown their age at times this season thus explaining the drop off in pass defense.
Offensive Keys to the Game
No turnovers/ limit penalties
The worst thing you can do on the road in the SEC is keep shooting yourself in the foot. The two ways of doing that are turning the ball over and penalties. Tennessee has given up the football multiple times in the opponent's territory over the past few games causing the games they have won to be much closer than they should have been. Penalties also make a hostile environment think they have a massive effect on the game, they also kill offensive drives.
Run the ball effectively
Tennessee's offensive identity this season has been Dylan Sampson and the run game as he has rushed for over 100 yards in every game this season but one. Georgia is the best run defense the Vols have seen this year presenting adversity where they excel the most. If Sampson, Nico/Gaston, and crew rise to the occasion and run it effectively it looks to be a good night for the Vols.
A calm Nico
Nico struggled to settle down in Tennessee's last road night game as it was loud, and he couldn't operate as well as he wished. This week after experiencing that he needs to grow stay calm and play his game. He should take what the Georgia defense gives him in the passing game and make decisions quickly. If Gaston plays it is much of the same except this is his first career start, he does not need to let the bright lights overwhelm him. Georgia's offense has also struggled to score when they don't benefit from great field position due to massive turnovers.
Defensive Keys to the Game
Get Beck Dirty
Beck has turned the football over quite a bit this season, and that comes with defenses getting in his face and putting him on the ground. The Tennessee pass rush is among the best in the NCAA and the team's number one strength. You should be able to get after him, and if you do it sets you up nicely for field position and momentum.
Stop the run
The Vols have struggled against the run over the past two weeks whereas before that they were one of the league's best. Georgia has yet to have a back break the 100-yard mark in a game this season, and with them deploying a young Freshman with limited backups out there the Vols should excel against a Georgia running game that has been among the league's worst this season.
Play clean football
Georgia's offense has struggled this season, and you cannot give them freebies such as holding penalties, personal fouls, and roughing the passers as these have the ability to spark a drive and bring life to a struggling offense.
Prediction
Tennessee matches up well with Georgia for the first time in a long time. With that being said Heupel has struggled to win on the road with the Vols, but Georgia has struggled against teams similar to Tennessee this year, and with the way Beck has been playing, injuries to players, Tennessee's rushing attack, and experience everywhere I expect Tennessee to win a close one with a score of 23-17 continuing the trend of not giving up more than 20-points to a team this year.
