Tennessee vs. Alabama: Preview and Prediction
The No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers (22-6, 12-3 SEC) will take on No. 14 Alabama (20-8, 12-3) in Tuscaloosa tonight. This is always a huge game, no matter what the records are, but Tennessee is in hot pursuit of their second SEC regular season title under head coach Rick Barnes. Beating the Crimson Tide on the road would put the Vols in sole possession of first place, but they will have to make a great effort to get the job done.
Tennessee has won five straight SEC games after beating No. 11 Auburn at home on Wednesday night. However, the road gets rockier in their last three games playing at No. 13 Alabama, at No. 18 South Carolina, and finishing at home against No. 16 Kentucky. The game against the Crimson Tide will almost be a title game as the winner takes the lead in a competitive race for the SEC title. This game and the next two will be crucial for the Vols in their season quest for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but it will also be invaluable experience against loaded quadrant-1 teams. "Because you are on the road because you are playing a terrific basketball team, it puts you in a position — if you are focused in the right way — to say this gives us a chance to prepare for a high-level NCAA (Tournament) basketball game," assistant coach Gregg Polinsky said.
The Vols match up well with the Crimson Tide. According to KenPom, Tennessee ranks no. 5 and Alabama ranks No. 6. However Tennessee ranks top-20 in both offense and defense in the KenPom rankings whereas Alabama isn’t in the top 100 in defense but is a top-3 KenPom offense.
Dalton Knecht and Aidoo will have big nights. However, what the Vols will need is Vescovi and Triple-J to contribute. Sears, Estrada, Griffen, and Nelson are all averaging double digits, and those four are why Alabama is still the NCAA’s most explosive offense. If they can hurdle Tennessee’s top-10 defense, they can win, and they have the home-court advantage to do so.
However, the Vols are on an SEC tear. If Knecht, Aidoo, and Zeigler get hot often, as they did against Auburn, Alabama will not have enough offense to overcome that top-10 defense.
At home, the Vols won 91-71 back in January, and the Crimson Tide want revenge. It will be an offensive show for sure, and the top two SEC Player of the Year candidates (Mark Sears and Dalton Knecht) will be wanting to one-up each other all game.
Score Prediction:
Tennessee 90, Alabama 84: The Vols look like a polished final-four team after their win against Auburn on Wednesday. Alabama did win their last game against Ole Miss on the road, but Kentucky showed how vulnerable this team is on defense by putting up 117 points. In my opinion, Alabama’s crowd and home-court advantage won’t be enough to pull the upset at home.
