Tennessee-Iowa: Cheez-It Citrus Bowl preview on New Year’s Eve
The Tennessee Volunteers will ring in the new year with a showdown against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Citrus Bowl (insert 20+ year old Steve Spurrier joke here). Listen at the end of the day winning this game is far less important than not losing it. 9-4 looks a whole lot better than 8-5, but to tally the 9th win the Vols will have to go through an Iowa team that boasts a terrific defense. This game will also be a glimpse into the future for Vol fans. Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson will both be starting, and the secondary will be relying on young talent after the mass exodus from that position group in the transfer portal. The good news is tons of Vol fans have been begging for changes at all these spots throughout the season. Let’s dive into some predictions I have for this game, and whether the Vols will come out on top.
1. Tennessee will score 35(or more) points.
If you’ve followed Tennessee this year you know the offense has struggled tremendously, and you may call me crazy for calling for one of the best offensive outputs of the year against a team with a top defense. However, the opt out of Joe Milton is the key to the offense not being shitty whether you like it or not. Joe Milton led the offense to 16 points against Florida, 13 against Alabama (subtracting 7 for the strip sack returned for a touchdown), 0 against Missouri (subtracting 7 for the pick 6), and 10 against Georgia. Disgusting offensive outputs, no matter how many excuses you want to make for the player tasked with leading the offense. The offense was no juggernaut in the wins either. Tennessee scored 13 points on offense in the win against Texas A&M, and without Dee Williams the Vols would have been in danger of a 7-5 season. I have never understood the infatuation this fan base has with Joe Milton, considering the results for him in the games that truly matter have been abysmal. Now let me be clear, the blame is on Josh Heupel for not going to Nico earlier in the season, but now that he has no choice, we finally get to witness the Prince Who Was Promised lead this offense. Some people may be a bit concerned about Nico getting his first start against a top-notch defense, but I don’t share these same concerns. Iowa plays in the Big 10, and the best passing offense they have faced this year ranks 35th in the country (Illinois). Tennessee finished 46th in the country with a QB who the coaches didn’t trust to throw the ball over the middle, so inserting a 5-star stud QB who has been in the program for a year now should instantly make the passing offense better. Yes, I am putting on the most optimistic pair of orange-colored glasses ever created. No coach’s tenure in the history of Tennessee Football has ever relied on the success of a QB as much as Josh Heupel is relying on Nico Iamaleava. I expect no pages in the playbook to be off limits come Monday afternoon. Josh Heupel is going to want to prove that he has his man for the foreseeable future at QB, and for that reason I expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders.
2. The Vol defense will hold the Hawkeyes to less than 200 yards.
The biggest cliché when people talk about the Big 10 vs. the SEC is that the Big 10 has more strength and the SEC has more speed. Now the misconception is that the SEC’s speed shows up on offense more, but in the past for Tennessee that speed has shown up on defense. This matchup is eerily similar to the 2016 Outback Bowl. The Vols finished the season at 8-4 and faced a 10-2 Northwestern team that hung their hat on the defense. That game resulted in a 45-6 win for the Vols, and the defense swarmed to the ball the whole game. The Northwestern offensive line looked like saloon doors as Derek Barnett, and Corey Vereen wreaked havoc in the backfield. The difference between that Northwestern team and this Iowa team though is that Northwestern didn’t have the worst offense in the country. The Iowa offense was so horrendous that Head coach Kirk Ferentz was contractually obligated to show his son (Iowa’s offensive coordinator) the door. Have you ever heard of a Head Coach hiring his son as offensive coordinator only to be forced to let him go because the offense was historically bad? Shakespeare couldn’t come up with a better tragedy, although to me it classifies more as comedy. The Iowa offense is the most hilarious trainwreck in college football, and if they go for more than 400 yards Tim Banks should resign.
3. The duo of Dylan Sampson and Cam Seldon will combine for 200 yards all purpose yards.
Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small have played incredibly well for the Vols for the past 3 years. However, come Monday afternoon, a new duo will be toting the rock out of the backfield. Whenever Dylan Sampson was given an opportunity to play this year, he was explosive. Without Sampson the win at Kentucky may not have happened as he dominated the Vols last two drives with impressive runs and clutch catches. Cam Seldon has seen the field in mop up duty this year and unfortunately for him it was behind backup linemen. However, Seldon is a Swiss army knife type player that has the ability to be a problem for opposing defenses out of the backfield. I’m not saying that the Vols are going to line up in the I-formation and pound the rock as if Phillip Fulmer was roaming the sidelines, but with the pass catching ability factored in I expect both to have big days. A checkdown route to a RB is a young QB’s best friend, and with Nico making his first start avoiding turnovers has likely been a point of emphasis. I think Sampson and Seldon have the talent to turn a simple checkdown into chunk plays so look for a big play from one of them that swings the game.
Prediction
This game is a chance for the future of the program to show what they can do. For some teams bowl games are meaningless, but for the Vols I think the young players will be eager to show that they belong. Iowa will struggle to get the ball moving, and Tennessee will likely take advantage of field position early and often on the way to a comfortable victory.