2024 Rocky Top Almanac: Presented by the CFB Good Guys

Hello, Volunteer fans! We are @theGoodGuysCFB on X/Twitter. The fine folks at 1796 Sports reached out to us recently about a collaboration. We are grateful for this opportunity to present you with our outlook for Tennessee Volunteer football.

Volunteer fans have been through just about everything since the turn to the 21st century. There was the 15-game losing streak to Nick Saban and Alabama that began in 2007–but we surely don’t have to remind you when that streak was snapped. Each one of you reading this likely remembers exactly where you were sitting–or jumping–when the ball sailed through the uprights. Then there was the coaching tenure of <name redacted to prevent rage trigger>, and the coaching tenure of <name also redacted to prevent rage trigger>, and the coaching tenure–okay there was a pattern forming for a while.

Enter Josh Heupel. Enter a new Tennessee.

But before we focus only on the future, let’s take a look at where the Volunteers are coming from or–perhaps a more poignant description–the ashes they are rising from.

The previous four Head Coaches in Knoxville were unable to beat Alabama. That is 0 for 4 entire coaching stints. Now let’s be clear, success in Knoxville is not tied only to beating Alabama. Far from it, in fact. You know it; we know it. With that said, it is undeniable what the SEC standard for success has been since 2008 or so. Even still, Tennessee has its sights much higher, and that Alabama dragon was slain in October 2022 anyway. In Josh Heupel’s 2nd season, the “yeah but can this guy beat Alabama” narrative was already dead.

The previous head coach at Tennessee went 16-19 in 3 seasons. Josh Heupel is 26-12 (pending a bowl game) in 3 seasons. That’s it. That is the end of this paragraph.

2022 was Tennessee’s first 11-win season since 2001. A win against Iowa could back that up with a 9-win season, a season (2023) that might have a completely different vibe to it right now if Joe Milton’s first real test had not fallen apart in the Swamp in a game full of ridiculousness.

All that to say, vibes should be up… WAY up. You don’t think so? Well, why don’t you ask SEC teams who would like to sign up to play in Neyland.

*crickets*

Under Heupel, the Volunteers are 18-4 at home. 18 home wins in 3 seasons is more wins than the previous head coach had in TOTAL in his 3 seasons. No one wants to play in Knoxville anymore. It is even more impressive if you look at just 2022 and 2023, where the record is 13-1. The lone loss coming to a Georgia team in 2023 who was firing on every single cylinder.

Unfortunately, home dominance has not translated for the Vols on the road just yet. If there has been any outright negative in Heupel’s campaign thus far, it is the 6-7 road record and the 7-5 overall record in November. These will have to improve for the Vols to take another step forward. Clearly, performance at Neyland is not a problem. It is a strength. When you’re turning a program around, it can be easy to focus on the weaknesses that need to be corrected. All of that is completely necessary, to be sure. Still, you have to lean into your strengths. Even if road struggles continue, commit to letting no one out alive from the confines of Neyland Stadium. The teams that enter will leave with another L. Period.

How do you win games on the road? Players. Talent. Recruiting.

Recruiting has mostly held serve for the Vols from previous tenures, with slight improvement, if you just look at national rankings (on3 is what we use). But, don’t just look at national rankings. In the 2024 class, as of 12/19/2023, ~70% of the Tennessee recruiting class is a 4 star or better. Believe it or not, that is up from only 28% in 2017–a class that was still ranked 18th in the country. In 2024, Tennessee sits at the 13 spot for now, with more spots open. We love to see the quality over quantity approach, especially with the availability of the transfer portal.

So, while achieving similar class rankings may not feel like much improvement, holding said rankings with less players committed definitely is. Finally, there has clearly been a focus on the offensive line in this class. And let’s just be honest. That wins games.

So what does all of this mean for 2024 and beyond? Let’s take a look at the key games for the Vols next season.

@Oklahoma 9/21

Florida 10/12

Alabama 10/19

@Georgia 11/16

There is that early road test. A massive opportunity for Heupel and company to squash a road narrative and give Oklahoma a rude welcome to the SEC. Realistically, Tennessee has a great chance to be 3-0 going into that game, needing to survive a Week 2 neutral site test against NC State to do so. Win the Oklahoma game and suddenly, the season is WIDE open. A fever pitch would be reached when Alabama arrives in town.

Okay, that is a lot of “ifs”. We know. It is why we play the games, and why we love college football. Anything can happen. Anything WILL happen.

For 2024, we would set the win over/under at 8.5, with the inclination to claim the over. So much hinges on that early Oklahoma trip, but 9 wins may still be doable without a win there. We firmly believe Tennessee has the talent to win in Norman, but Josh Heupel is still in “prove it” mode on the road. As mentioned earlier, win that game and put everyone on notice. And at that point, you’re also looking at a potential playoff berth if the Vols were able to hold serve outside of Alabama and Georgia.

It is an unquestionable fact that Tennessee is in a better spot than it was before Josh Heupel took the reins. Now, can he take the next step? Can he win an SEC Championship? Getting to the CFB Playoffs next year would be the biggest step he could possibly take.

Oh, and it is Nico time. Stay sharp, Vol fans. Be ready to back the boys in Neyland in 2024. Remember, no one else leaves Neyland Stadium without a loss added to their ledger. A new season means new hope. So, why not Tennessee? You might get to be the team nobody wants to play in December.

Cue Rocky Top.

All the best,

The Good Guys