Tennessee vs. Missouri: The winning formula for these Vols
The Tennessee Basketball Volunteers have been on a roller coaster ride in SEC play. A 3-1 start with wins over Arkansas, Texas, and Georgia was followed by a frustrating 1-3 stretch in which the Vols lost to Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Kentucky by a combined 8 points, leaving them at even par through 8 conference games. A start like that is not too surprising in a league that leaves little room for mistakes, but in the Vols’ last outing, this team hopefully figured out how they need to approach the remaining 9 games on their schedule.
The Vols under Rick Barnes have always been at their best when the defense and effort level overwhelms their opponent. In the losses to Florida, Vandy, and Kentucky the defense and effort for Tennessee was not at that elite level. The only exception was the loss at Auburn where the Vols didn’t make enough winning plays down the stretch. However, go look at Auburn’s games this year. Tennessee holding them to 53 points remains a significant outlier, and holding Florida to 44 points is the same story. Even the most explosive offensive teams in the country can be put into a torture chamber by this Tennessee squad, and those types of defensive performances are the formula for Tennessee to succeed the rest of the year. The Vols have shown that even when the shooting is just ok or even bad they can still win games if that type of effort on defense is there, and that’s exactly the kind of game they need to play tonight against the Missouri Tigers.
Missouri comes into this matchup with a 6-2 conference record and ranked 17th in the country. Kenpom has the Tigers ranked 22nd with the 13th-ranked offensive efficiency and the 43rd-ranked defensive efficiency. The Tigers are led by Tamar Bates who transferred from Indiana last year and currently leads them in scoring with 13.5 points per game. Duke Transfer Mark Mitchell provides the scoring punch down low while South Carolina transfer Noah Gray does most of the dirty work for the Tigers and leads the team in rebounding. Sophomore guard Anthony Robinson leads the Tigers in assists and steals. However, the player that might spell trouble for the Vols tonight if they aren’t careful is sharpshooter Caleb Grill. Grill is the best 3-point shooter in the league at a staggering 49% and is fresh off a 20-point outing on Saturday against Mississippi State where he hit 6 shots from long distance. Grill is the best option from deep for Missouri, but the team overall shoots well as they come in ranked 4th in the SEC in 3-point shooting. Luckily for the Vols, one of the things they do better than anyone in the country is defend the 3 which will be key in this matchup.
After the highly emotional win over Florida, I think it’s good that Tennessee isn’t facing a bottom-tier SEC team tonight. If a South Carolina or LSU was coming into TBA at FCC tonight a letdown game might be more possible. However, Missouri should have Tennessee’s full attention. Especially after what they just did to Mississippi State in their own building. Zakai and Igor will be back, and hopefully, the same effort that the rest of the team brought against Florida on Saturday will be back as well. Replicate the effort and defensive intensity from that one, and the Vols should be welcoming back Zakai and Igor with another crucial quad-1 win.
Prediction
Tennessee - 77
Missouri - 65