Tennessee-Florida Preview: Predictions for the Week 3 matchup
In honor of Florida Hate Week, we’re doing something we’ve yet to do on this site- invite an opposing fan to offer their take on the game. Please don’t be too harsh, other than being a Gator fan, he’s not a bad guy. Anyway, without further ado, here is a Florida fan’s take on the matchup:
Tennessee hasn’t won in Gainesville since the year 2003. I’ll give you two names that will contribute to the 20 year streak continuing for the Gators. The first name is Joe Milton. Milton,has been the the sole reason as to why fans should never buy into preseason Heisman hype. The 6 foot 5, 240 pound, “I can throw the ball 90 yards” phenom has been nothing of the sort when it comes to the hype he had received all spring and summer after Tennessee throttled Clemson back in December. If you look at the scores the first two weeks of this college football season you may think the Vols have taken a small step back after averaging only 6ppg less than last season, where the offense was one of the highest scoring teams in the country and couldn’t be stopped by anyone besides Georgia. Let me give you a couple of stats as to why that is very misleading. The Vols have the most drives in the SEC that have ended with a punt in 9, Joe Milton is 10th in passing yards per game in the SEC, and both games came against the easiest competition the Vols will see all year in Virginia and Austin Peay. Both of the games were basically home games for Tennessee as well. So this leads me to ask. Why are Volunteer fans so confident that they will walk into the Swamp and dominate a defense that is third in the country in total defense? Last time we saw this Florida defense vs a top 15 team they looked totally unprepared to start the game. Since that first half vs Utah, Florida has given up less than 200 total yards in their last 6 quarters and seem to only be getting better. The second name I’ll mention is Austin Armstrong. The new 29-year-old defensive coordinator has reignited the energy in Florida’s defense that we haven’t seen since before Dan Mullen was hired. This defense is not remotely close to the same one the volunteers encountered last season bringing 9 different starters. Specifically speaking, look out for Armstrong to use the dynamic linebacker duo of Shemar James and Jeremiah “Scooby” Williams to neutralize the Volunteers running game and force Milton to beat them. Shemar James is the second highest graded linebacker in the country per PFF, and his counter-part Jeremiah Williams is as aggressive as they come, whether that be vs. the run or spying the quarterback. If that game plan ends up being effective, watch out for Sunday morning as Volunteer fans will be chomping at the bits for Heupel to bench Milton for a second time since he’s been the head coach.
Alright now that that’s out of the way, let’s hear Ryan’s retort:
Traditionally when the Tennessee Volunteers travel to the Swamp to take on the Florida Gators things do not go well. Untimely turnovers, defensive breakdowns in crucial moments, and inferior talent have told the tale of the losing streak the Vols have in Gainesville. However recent years have seen the Vols pass the Gators in talent, overall team speed, and most importantly coaching. The last time the Vols had the advantage in all 3 of these categories going into Gainesville was 2003, which is not surprisingly the last time the Vols went back to Knoxville as Winners.
The mindset some Vol fans have about the Florida game year after year is nothing short of embarrassing. The self-loathing, miserable portion of the fanbase feeds into the narrative that the Vols just don’t win in Gainesville. When these people just rest on their delusional postulate of the Vols not winning in Gainesville because of some curse, they lose any respect from me. The reality is the Vols haven’t played well in the Swamp because they either had a buffoon as head coach (take your pick, every coach from 2009-2020 applies) or they just were not talented enough to compete. Listen if you want to be a loser and piss on any idea of the Vols beating the hell out of the Gators on Saturday night be my guest, but if you aren’t a loser and don’t buy into the doom and gloom curse outlook continue reading.
The Vols have the advantage in many of the matchups in this game, but the most important one to me is the ability the Vols have to rush the passer. While many fans hope the offense was keeping things close to the vest through the first two games the defense might have been equally vanilla. Tim Banks hasn’t dialed up many exotic blitzes so far this year and it is most likely because he knew it wasn’t necessary. When the Vols played their first formidable opponent last year in Pitt, Tim Banks emptied the clip on defense. The Vols racked up over 20 QB pressures and wreaked havoc on Pitt’s passing game. I expect something similar from Tim Banks and the defense on Saturday as Graham Mertz isn’t known for being mobile. Even if the pressure doesn’t result in sacks it could result in missed throws and interceptions.
The Gators opened up the season facing Utah who to be fair normally has a great defense, and not surprisingly the Gators’ offense looked completely befuddled only scoring one touchdown late in the game as they were only able to muster 11 points. The Vol defensive unit this year is better than what Utah has to offer. Call me a redneck if you want but SEC-level talent on defense almost always results in a better unit. The Vol defense has exceeded expectations so far this year with improved tackling, and more speed in pursuit of the ball. A great Vols defensive performance will equal a win on Saturday night, and I think that side of the ball is more than capable of taking over the game.
Now for the offensive side of things, Vol fans have more of a reason to be pessimistic. The Vol offense so far has looked out of rhythm. Much of the blame falls on Joe Milton and the receivers as inaccuracy and dropped balls have killed many potential drives during the first two games. However, the running game has been elite, and will only get better as starting center Cooper Mays is expected to be back in action against the Gators.
The idea that Josh Heupel might’ve been sandbagging on offense during the first two games was not something I agreed with early in the week. However, the more I think about it I could see that being the case. Josh Heupel has said that the reason they haven’t been taking many deep shots is the opposing defense wasn’t giving it to them by positioning defenders deep in the secondary. While that may be the case it was no secret last year during the Vols historic offensive season that deep balls were inevitable when defending against it. The Vols found a way to push it downfield last year facing a crowded secondary so that leads me to believe Josh Heupel just hasn’t felt the need to stretch the field much in the young season. The Vol running game being dominant and the quick screens to keep the Gator defense honest should be enough to win without throwing the ball downfield, but if Josh Heupel has the itch to go over the top, I guarantee he has plays to beat a crowded secondary.
The Vol fanbase is going to show up in droves to the Swamp to try and take away from the Gators’ Homefield advantage. If the Vols show up ready to compete those fans might be rewarded with a performance similar to when the Vols played LSU in Death Valley last year. The Vols are absolutely capable of blowing out the Gators this year and I’m leaning towards that being the case. The Vols are coming off a lackluster performance against Austin Peay and are probably foaming at the mouth to take care of business and prove the doubters wrong. The Vols are also better coached, more talented, and faster as I mentioned earlier. I see the Vols pounding the rock early on offense with Jaylen Wright and forcing the Gators to bring more defenders into the box. Once that happens the Gators will be vulnerable to what Joe Milton does best which is launch balls deep downfield. 2-3 converted deep balls might be enough to open the floodgates for the Vols in the Swamp and force the Gators to go away from their running game early. If the Gators are forced into passing the defensive line can pin their ears back and go after Graham Mertz causing him to press the issue which might result in turnovers. If the Loser portion of the Vol fanbase is still reading yes, I am in fact predicting the Vols to win the game in the swamp, and by a substantial margin.
Prediction - Tennessee – 41
Florida - 10
Featured image via @AstroSmokeyX on X (Twitter)