Tennessee vs. Missouri: Predictions and preview
The Tennessee Volunteers will travel to Columbia, Missouri this weekend to take on the Missouri Tigers. This game means a whole lot more to both teams than what a casual college football fan would assume. The loser of this game will most likely not get to the 10-win mark, and if this game took place next year it would be a de-facto elimination game when you consider a 12 team CFP. However, only one of these teams is still alive for an SEC East title and that is Tennessee. The road to Atlanta, hard as it may be, is not yet blocked off for the Vols and the first thing they need to do to keep it open is secure a victory this Saturday against the Tigers. Let’s take a look at 3 keys that will help the Vols get another tough SEC road win.
Win in the trenches.
The Vols come into this game with the best rushing offense in the SEC, and the best rushing defense in the SEC. However, the Missouri Tigers are no slouch when it comes to line play either. Missouri was able to rush for more yards against Georgia than what they gave up, and not to mention the success they had attacking the edges of the Georgia defense. Tennessee will need to continue their success in this department in order to win this game Saturday afternoon and I expect that they will. Many people questioned how the Vol’s rushing attack would look going against Texas A&M’s stout defensive front earlier in the season, and the Vols rose to the challenge and ran for over 230 yards. Many people questioned if the Vol’s defensive front would be able to slow down Kentucky’s Ray Davis, and all the Vols did was hold one of the SEC’s leading rushers to less than 50 yards. The point is that whenever the Vol’s success in the trenches has been questioned this year on both sides of the ball they have answered the bell. If the Vols are able to win Saturday afternoon it will be due to continued success by the big men in the middle.
Keep Luther Burden and Theo Wease in check.
The Missouri Tigers boast what is arguably the best wide-receiver duo in the SEC in Luther Burden and Theo Wease. Luther Burden is closing in on 1,000 yards receiving on the season, and Theo Wease caught 5 balls for 90 yards on Georgia’s defense. These two players should be at the top of the list for Tim Banks and his defense to slow down in this game. If the Vol secondary turns in another performance like they had against Kentucky against Burden and Wease the game could get out of hand quickly. The Vol’s need to keep these two in check as much as possible, and what would help out a ton is if the Vol’s pass-rush returns from their inexplicable hiatus. I think Tim Banks will need 6-7 players in coverage to keep this Missouri passing game from carving them up, so it is essential for the Vols to get pressure on Brady Cook without blitzing. However, if dropping 7 in coverage means getting nickel and dimed down the field all game Tim Banks has to adjust and send the house at Cook. If you can’t tell I have no idea what will work best to slow down this Missouri passing attack, but I don’t get paid $1.5 million like Tim Banks so please Mr. Banks earn your salary this Saturday.
Finish Drives with Touchdowns
The last time the Vols were on the road they were only able to score 1 touchdown in the redzone out of 5 trips. That will not get the job done against an offense as potent as Missouri’s. The Vols seem to go hyper-conservative when it comes to play calling inside the 20, and I don’t think 2 handoffs and a Joe Milton designed run is going to be a recipe for success this Saturday if the Vols want to put up enough points to knock off the Tigers. Josh Heupel needs to have a plan for the redzone this Saturday, and whether it be throwing over the middle finally or pulling out a few trick plays he has to draw up something that results in 6 instead of 3. Josh Heupel has hitched his wagon to Joe Milton at Quarterback for better or worse, and it would be super disappointing for Heupel to continue to not trust Joe when the windows get tighter closer to the goal-line. Joe Milton has shown over the last 2 weeks that he is capable of extending plays, throwing over the middle, and making the right decision. So please Josh Heupel trust the quarterback you have chosen to go with, and call plays that a 6-year-old wouldn’t be able to predict when we get inside the 20.
Predictions
This game is the definition of a toss-up. Most betting sites have this as a one-point line at most, and some sites even have it as a pick-em. These teams are mirror images of each other. Both teams come in at 7-2, both teams pair a good offense with a feisty defense, and both teams need this game to end the season where they want to be. I expect the Vols to pound the rock on offense early in this game and come away with a touchdown on their first drive like the Vols have done in every road game this year. I expect the Vols to showcase their talent in the trenches. However most importantly, I expect the Vols to be the fresher team coming off a semi-bye week while Missouri is coming off a tough game against Georgia. This game will be close well into the 4th quarter, but I think the Vols push a 3-point lead to a 10-point lead with a back-breaking drive that features the Vol rushing attack taking advantage of a tired Missouri front-7.