Both No. 5 Tennessee Vols (15-5) and the No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats (15-5) are coming into Rupp Arena Saturday for what was supposed to be the SEC’s big showdown. However, both are wobbling in with black eyes having lost at home previously this week.

Tennessee unexpectedly fell at home to South Carolina 63-59. Dalton Knecht had another huge night, scoring 31 points and extending his 25+ ppg per game streak to 6. But it ultimately wasn’t enough to counter the rest of the team not scoring. The Vols will need the whole team to contribute to win, and cannot rely on Knecht to score 40+ to win against Kentucky on the road.

Kentucky is coming off a huge upset in OT 94-91 to Florida in Lexington. Kentucky has been hot on offense but has been bad on defense all season. Reeves scored another 19 points and Sheppard had a huge night scoring 24 points. However, it just wasn’t enough offense for such a putrid defensive game. If Kentucky can’t play a good game on the defensive side of the ball, it will be a long night for the Wildcats.

MATCH UP

Tennessee matches up well with teams that allow more than 72 ppg. Alabama came into Knoxville allowing 75 ppg but boasted an electric offense that was averaging 89.4 ppg. However, Tennessee flipped the script and beat the Tide by double digits. Kentucky plays a similar game, averaging 88.7 ppg and allowing 77.2 ppg. If Kentucky can’t stop DK, and they lose the turnover battle, they will be in a world of trouble.

DK has been unstoppable since conference play started, and he is only getting better, averaging a freakish 32.6 points in his last 5 games. In the loss to South Carolina, he carried the team and almost helped get a win, scoring 12 points in the last three minutes of the game and bringing the Vols within 2 points with 5 seconds left.

Aidoo struggled against South Carolina but should be set for a big night as the 6-11, 240-pound center is playing better ball consistently than Kentucky’s Ugonna Onyenso. Aidoo is averaging more points and rebounds (11.6 ppg and 7.4 rpg) than Onyenso (4.2 ppg, 5 rpg). If Aidoo can get over the hump playing against elite centers, the Vols will be hot again, and Aidoo will have a big night in Lexington.

The rest of the Tennessee starters don’t match up as well as the above-mentioned, minus Zeigler. Tennessee will need Zeigler to be more consistent shooting the ball and creating turnovers like he has done frequently in the past. When Zeigler gets hot, the whole team gets hot. When he’s not, well, DK has to carry the team. Look at the loss on Tuesday- Zeigler missed all his shots, going 0-6 for field goals, 0-4 from the 3-point line, and only dished out 3 assists. Zeigler is this team’s rhythm, and he needs to play consistently on Saturday night. Tennessee is the better team at rebounding and they will need to get second-chance scores to win this game.

Kentucky’s small forward, Adou Thiero, has been playing limited minutes since his back injury but may be a big factor come Saturday when he has to play against the SEC’s best scorer in Dalton Knecht. He’s only averaging 7ppg but is a very efficient shooter, hitting 50% of his field goals and 36.4% of his threes.

Kentucky’s star, Antonio Reeves, has been playing consistent basketball, averaging 19.5 points a game, shooting 54% from the field and a whopping 43.8% behind the arch. Vescovi needs to have a good night against Reeves for the Vols to win.

Prediction

This experienced Vols squad isn’t phased after a tough loss against a good South Carolina team. Kentucky, however, hasn’t been playing as efficiently as they have in previous seasons on defense and Tennessee is the better team at rebounding. Zeigler and Vescovi will step up and do their job while Dalton Knecht and Jonas Aidoo have huge nights. Knecht scores 33 and Tennessee wins 87-78 in a big win to get back on track to take the lead in the SEC.