Perhaps the most pivotal game of the season is upon us. The Titans will take on the Jaguars today which has many draft implications as well as may determine the future for Head Coach Brian Callahan and perhaps even GM Ran Carthon as well. The Titans are 3-12 and have had one of the worst seasons since they earned the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft. If the Titans lose today their chances of landing the top pick could/should skyrocket as they face the Texans the following week who don’t want to limp into the playoffs. All that would be left would be a Giants or Patriots win against teams that are already locked for the playoffs in Week 18.

More so than draft position how the Titans finish the remainder of their schedule should help determine the fate of Head Coach Brian Callahan. Suffice to say no one, and I do mean no one, foresaw this Titans team that made all the right moves in the offseason come out and be battling for a top 5 pick in the draft. The Titans team has looked lifeless too often this season regardless of QB or circumstance. The only convincing win that doesn’t have an asterisk attached to it should be the Texans game in Houston. Outside of that the team has been quite awful the vast majority of the year.

Callahan announced Mason Rudolph as the starter for the game today after a so-so performance last week against the Colts. If Will Levis truthers still exist this was their emergency boat to flee moment. Levis may have played his last game with the team two weeks ago and the Titans absolutely need to move on from Levis even as it’s only been 1.5 years of the Will Levis era. Rudolph will have the chance to do what Levis couldn’t do and that’s score more than 6 points against a Jacksonville team that is one of the worst defenses in the league. In addition, a recent report from Tom Pelissero of NFL.com states that, “Internally, there is a feeling Callahan has shown long-term promise and the team has improved…” in regards to Callahan staying on board for 2025. I’m not sure how true that is but if the front office has seen measurable improvement since last year with a better overall roster I’d like to know what they’re referring to in order to create that hypothesis. Regardless, if the front office is convinced that Callahan should stay on board perhaps how these next two games go will ultimately decide Callahan’s fate.

The Jaguars defense is going to have to stop Tyjae Spears today if they’re going to pull off a victory. RB Tony Pollard is going to miss his first game this season with an ailing ankle injury and an illness. Spears will finally get to start a game for the first time in his career after backing up Derrick Henry last year and Pollard this year. Spears is more than capable of taking on the role today of lead back. I expect Spears to see 20+ touches during the game. The big question for today however, will be if Mason Rudolph can carry the Titans to victory through the air. We saw last week that for much of the game that was not the case. It was only until the Titans were at a 30+ point deficit in the early 3rd quarter that the Colts defense took their foot off the gas and almost allowed another Minnesota Vikings 2022-esque comeback. The Jaguars have the 4th worst coverage grade according to PFF. The Jaguars are ranked last in the NFL in terms of pass ypg. They’re allowing 267 pass yards per game. In order for the Titans to take advantage of the porous Jaguars pass defense they’ll need to protect Rudolph in the pocket. Last time they played the Titans only gave up 2 sacks in one of the OL’s best games of the season. If the Titans OL can provide time for Mason Rudolph to pass the ball dink and dunk and hit the big play so often this should be a close game.

The Titans defense will be without Amani Hooker today as he’s been dealing with a shoulder injury all season. That will force Kendrell Brooks or Mike Brown to take over as starting Strong Safety. That could be a huge problem for the Titans as they’re to face rookie standout WR Brian Thomas Jr. — who already has done more than former Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley — as he has 1,088 yards on the season and 9 TDs. Mac Jones has had a solid connection with BTJ since taking over as the starting QB with 399 yards and 4 TDs in 4 games. In the last matchup Jones and BTJ hooked up for 8 catches and 86 yards. However, given how these games go this shouldn’t be another 10-6 lock-tight game. The Titans defense — who’s ranked 29th in pass rush — will need to bring the pressure to affect Mac Jones and make it difficult for the Jaguars offense. Former Pro Bowl LB Harold Landry needs to start living up to his contract by being more consistent rushing the passer. So far this year Landry has amassed 8 sacks, and with two games to go it remains to be seen if he can hit double digits. Too often Landry disappears from the game entirely. With Jaguars starting LT Walker Little ruled out for the game the Titans have a prime opportunity to show they can effectively rush the passer to stop drives and/or create turnovers. Last week the Titans got mollywhopped by the Colts offensive line. The Titans cannot have another game like that if they’re to secure a victory today.

Prediction:

The Titans will have much more offensive success than last time they played the Jaguars and vice versa for the Jags. This should still be a close game in which the team with the ball last should win the game. One key component that could be worth watching is how Matthew Wright, the Titans new Kicker, plays with Nick Folk ruled out. If Wright can hit his kicks, which he’s shown so far this season (11/12), then the Titans will be fine. However, this game could come down to a FG and I have the Titans losing 17-14.