The Titans are now straddling the edge of the abyss with each game. If the Titans win, they stay alive in the race for a potential playoff spot. If the Titans lose they’re almost assuredly eliminated from playoff contention and are 100% in draft mode. The Titans opportunity to do something truly remarkable is still appropriate. Although the Titans started the season 2-8 they now find themselves at 3-8 with six games left and somehow still in the fight for a playoff spot due to the Texans failing to pounce on their opportunity. The Jaguars had a similar fate last year when they started the season 8-3 with a commanding lead of the AFC until the Texans were able to swoop in late and had a little help from Ryan Tannehill and the Titans in Week 18. Albeit far fetched, with a win today the Titans have a plausible path to the AFCS crown — especially if the Jaguars can topple the Texans.

The Commanders are a near touchdown favorite (-6) against the Titans. If you’re keeping score the Texans were a (-7.5) favorite last week before the Titans pulled off the upset of the week and handled the Texans easily. The Titans will need to shutdown big plays from Rookie of the Year candidate Jayden Daniels. He has over 3000 total yards and has scored 17 total touchdowns with only 5 interceptions. Big plays are what Daniels was known for at LSU where he often found Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., and when he couldn’t find those two he utilized his legs in stunning efficiency. Jayden Daniels is looking more like Lamar Jackson at the next level and that’s a scary thought for someone who is still a rookie. The Titans pass rush will need to get home against Daniels and force him into mistakes. Unfortunately for the Titans being able to hold up in coverage for very long has not worked well for them. When the Titans defense can’t affect the passer either two things happen, coverage breaks down or tight coverage that turns into a DPI because the defender isn’t looking back for the ball — common themes from the past several years of Titans football. Earlier this past week the Titans designated Chidobe Awuzie to return off IR. However, the Titans did not elevate him this week so they’ll have to wait to get additional secondary help. The Titans will need all the help they can get as they try to slow down a Commanders passing offense that is seeing success — especially after the reemergence of Terry McLaurin who’s on track to have a career year. McLaurin had a big TD late in the Cowboys game last week. McLaurin is a threat to take seriously as he can take it the distance at any point in the game.

Speaking of taking it the distance at any point Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is having his own career resurgence. The once UDFA out of Indiana has scored a TD in 6 out of the past 7 games. NWI is tied 4th in the NFL in TD receptions and is 6th in the NFL in yards per reception (17.9). Will Levis and NWI have found a steady connection throughout the past few weeks. Levis will need to connect with his receivers often and build on the momentum of the past three games in which he’s played decisively better since his shoulder injury earlier in the season. One big attribute that Levis needs to grow on is his pocket awareness. Over the past 3 games he’s taken 20 sacks (league high), and most of those can be attributed to his blind pocket awareness. Too often is the team set back offensively because Levis would rather hold the ball too long and/or try and escape through a clean pocket only to end up in the arms of a 300lbs defensive lineman. The Commanders are currently 21st in pass rush efficiency according to PFF. Dante Fowler Jr. and Frank Luvu lead the Commanders with 9 and 7 sacks respectively. The Titans will need to do nearly everything they can creatively to avoid those two from having a big day. Unfortunately for Nicholas Petit-Frere Fowler lines up mostly on the RT of the offensive line. That’s going to be a problem for the Titans that they’ll need to address. If they can’t then expect another 4-5 sack game — at minimum — for the Titans. The Titans do have some good news however, Marshon Lattimore is doubtful to play. Although he’s not who he once was he creates a situation that the Titans could take advantage of as Mike Sainstril — the Commanders CB1 — will likely be matchup up with Ridley. Coach Brian Callahan should be able to scheme up some looks against the Commanders, so long as the line holds up. He’ll need to dig deep in the playbook to pull out a tough victory against the Commanders team today.

The Commanders run defense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th according to PFF. The Titans need to have Pollard touch the ball 20+ times in this game to increase their odds. Pollard is having a great year so far. He’s 200 yards away from 1k with 6 games (including today) left and is averaging 4.3 ypc. He’s become the Titans MVP on offense as he’s been the lead running back for much of the season. The Titans need to get Pollard going to open up the offense. Tyjae Spears is also active today — that should give a good boost to the Titans offense as they try and keep the defense guessing. How the Titans attack the Commanders in the run game today will determine how the game ultimately may fall.

Prediction

Jayden Daniels should find success moving the ball against the Titans defense. The Houston game may have been the Titans catching lightning in a bottle. The Titans offense will find ways to score, but ultimately will give up too many sacks to overcome the down and distance. The Commanders will win 21-17 as the Titans revert to their mean.