Countdown to Training Camp- Projecting Will Levis’s 2024 Season
It’s the 4th of July and I hope you’re having a relaxing and wonderful day ahead. As you’re waiting for your second helping of hotdogs let’s dive into today’s topic. We’re now closer than ever to Titans training camp. In the lead up to training camp we’ll be breaking down key players and projecting their season stats. This week we’ll start with none other than the most important player on the Titans roster this upcoming season — Will Levis. His rookie season showed lots of promise as the 2nd round Quarterback battled against his own team more often than the opposing one — enter Andre Dilliard, Treylon Burks, RT Flavor of the week, and Tim Kelly.
This offseason the Titans have completely reshaped their offensive identity and have worked intensively to rectify the dumpster fire that was the Titans 2023 offense. The most important asset for Will Levis this season should undoubtedly be Head Coach Brian Callahan. The former Offensive Coordinator for the Cincinnatti Bengals the past 5 years should provide the biggest boost to Will Levis’s stat totals in 2024. Competent play calling was often missing last year as the Titans consistently saw themselves behind the sticks and lack explosive plays. The second biggest boon to Will Levis’s stats will come from the Titans biggest offensive additioin in Free Agency — Calvin Ridley. Titans’ Wide Receivers consistently let down Will Levis last year. In the oft-chance that Levis did have enough time to pass the ball downfield the Titans WR corps consistently failed to create separation. The Titans ranked T-2nd in the NFL with “Incompletions due to WR error.” That’s not hard to believe when you remember it was only a few months ago that NWI was WR2, Chris Moore WR3, Treylon Burks- Non-factor, and Kyle Phillips- Non-factor². Now, contrast that with WR1 Calvin Ridley, WR2 DeAndre Hopkins, and WR3 Tyler Boyd. The Titans now have a bevy of options for Will Levis that rivals the best WR corps in Titans/Oilers history.
Levis had decent statistical year given what he had and that it was also his rookie season. He put up 1808 yards (224 ypg), 8 passing TD’s, (1 pg) and 4 INT’s (.5 pg) in *9 games started — Levis was knocked out of the Houston game early on New Years Eve after only 6 passing attempts. If we only extrapolated his 8 games completed over a 17 game season that would be 3808 yards, 17 TD’s, and 8 INT’s. However, that’s not how I’ll project Levis’s 2024 season. To do that we’ll need to analyze a few things:
First: How previous Bengals OC Brian Callahan will affect the offensive output
Second: Will Levis’s growth in his second year
Lastly: How the addition of various offensive key pieces will affect Levis’s passing totals
First
As stated before Brian Callahan is the most crucial component to analyze Will Levis’s 2024 projection. Given the situation regarding Burrow’s injury this past season we’ll go back to 2022 to analyze the Bengals offense. In 2022 the Bengals were one of the best offenses in football. Obviously that’s not hard when you have Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. In total the offense was on the field for 1,107 snaps and passed the ball for 729 of those snaps — That’s 66% percent passing plays to only 34% running plays. We should expect Coach Callahan to stay around those parameters. In contrast, last year the Titans had 59% of their snaps as passing plays and 41% running according to PFF. In comparison, the top NFL offenses in the league the KC Chiefs were 67% pass and 33% run, and the Buffalo Bills were 60% pass and 40% run in 2023.
The 2022 Bengals offense was spectacular and the Titans will be all too pleased if they can come close to replicating their offensive output. By increasing the percentage of drop backs for Will Levis from 59% in 2023 to a modest~63% Levis’s in season projection totals should come to a clearer picture.
Second
Our next crucial component to analyzing Levis’s 2024 season will be to project his growth. This, is the most difficult portion of the projection to nail down. It’s unlikely that Levis will see a sophomore slump given how atrocious the Titans were last year. It would be asinine to assume that Levis will perform worse after seeing a modicum of success last season. Levis should expect to see his accuracy increase from 58%. To be modest we should see Levis accuracy percentage at least hover around 65%. Coach Callahan has already been working with Levis changing the launch point of the ball to do just that. Working on his technique along with the mental aspect of having a year under his belt, and being more comfortable as the guy Levis should improve quite a bit. This will also, unfortunately, be another offense that Levis will have to learn. It’s been a rarity for Levis to have multiple years with the same staff starting from his college days as he bounced around from PSU to Kentucky and ultimate dealt with college HC Liam Coen leaving to the NFL before his Senior season. The expectation shouldn’t be that Levis will be savant come week 1 when it comes to operating the offense as Callahan has designed it. However, throughout the season there should be a clear upwards projection of growth for the second year quarterback.
Third
This past offseason the Titans added: Lloyd Cushenberry, Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Saahdiq Charles, Tyler Boyd, and JC Latham to the offensive side of the ball. Each of those offensive additions listed are expected to play a large role in either keeping Will Levis upright, or receiving the ball. We’ll start with the offensive line.
The Titans added Lloyd Cushenberry to replace the oft-errant Aaron Brewer. Cushenberry is a really solid Center and he was one of the best on the market. PFF ranked Cushenberry as the 10th best center in the league. He’s an instant plug and play starter at the position. To Cushenberry’s immediate right side it’s alleged that Saahdiq Charles will take over at RG as he’s been getting the most reps with the starters during the Titans offseason program. Daniel Brunksill wasn’t necessarily a terrible RG last year for the Titans. I’d characterize his time in Nashville serviceable. However, it appears coach Bill Callahan plucked Charles from the Commanders specifically to compete and/or replace Brunskill. The Titans interior OL is probably its strongest point. On the exterior is another issue. JC Latham was selected 7th overall this past draft to be the immediate Left Tackle for the Titans. Coach Callahan has been impressed with the rookie insofar as to heap praise on him whenever he can. Although JC Latham is a rookie he should be an immediate upgrade to the woeful 2023 performance of Andre Dilliard and Jaelyn Duncan. With 4 capable starters from Left to Right: Latham, Skoronski, Cushenberry, Charles the Titans have massively improved there OL room. Will Levis frequently played in a contested pocket, often being forced out of the pocket or forcing throws. The following stats are all courtesy of PFF: Levis was under pressure on 44% of his drop backs — most of the pressure came from the LT position with 43%, and 2nd most is RT with 23%. Only Justin Fields had a higher pressure rate of QB’s who started more than 6 games. The Titans OL was responsible for 49 sacks throughout the 2023 season — that ranked first in the NFL. Moreover, Levis was sacked 28 times on 292 dropbacks — a staggering ~10% of his snaps.
The Titans have done much to improve the OL room during the 2024 season. Titans fans (knock on wood) should rest easy as it comes to protecting Will Levis this season. Last season when Levis was operating in a clean pocket his accuracy neared 70% and it was accompanied by a 5:2 TD to INT ratio. In comparison, when pressured Levis’s accuracy droped to 40% with a 3:2 TD to INT ratio. With the addition of Latham, Cushenberry, and Charles, Will Levis should see himself more upright than last year allowing him to pass the ball with more efficiency in 2024.
The Titans OL isn’t the only position group that was the beneficiary of a Ty Pennington sized extreme makeover…the Titans WR corps has had a remarkable face lift since ending the Jaguars season in Nashville 28-20. The Titans went from DHop + the Bad News Bears WR corps to: Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd as their top targets. As previously mentioned thats as solid of a WR group that the Titans haven’t had since inception. The biggest issue the Titans WR’s had last year was a severe lack of consistency. Levis had the 2nd highest drop rate with 8.6% of his passes dropped due to receiver error for a total of 14 drops according to PFF. That’s a truly terrible rate that should be rectified this upcoming season.
After many splash moves during the Free Agency period the Titans signing Calvin Ridley is certainly one of the biggest. Ridley ranked 32nd in receiving grades for WR’s who played at least 50% of their teams snaps last year. To compare DeAndre Hopkins ranked 16th — sandwhiched between D.K. Metcalf and newly acquired Texans receiver Stephon Diggs according to PFF. Ridley was lined up out wide on close to 81% of his snaps which is similiar to Hopkins’s 79%. However, I don’t expect Ridley to soley be lined up on the outside. Titans coaches and the Ridley himself have mentioned moving around the formation, and getting comfortable based on the call. The Titans also added former Bengals WR Tyler Boyd. The slot WR position was consistently an issue for Tennessee as they failed to consistently move the ball between the hashes. Fortunately, that’s not a problem for Tyler Boyd. I wrote an article in early May about what Boyd brings to the Titans. In summary he does his best work between the hashes and in short to intermediate work. He’s a sure handed WR that only accounted for 3 drops the entire season. Having a go to guy that Levis can throw to on his hot read, and/or trusting Boyd to make a play on the ball will accumulate dividends for Levis. The WR position is surrounded by savvy talented vets. It’s great to know that Levis will have some receiving options over the usual NWI and Mason Kinsey’s (no offense) of the world.
In addition to the receiver additions the Titans also added a possible sleeper in free agency to increase Levis’s pass totals — Tony Pollard. The former Cowboys bell cow Tony Pollard is a do it all back. He has finesse and strength. He’s not going to confuse anyone for Derrick Henry that’s for sure, but he more than makes up for in in production. He put up a decent year as the Cowboys RB with: 252 carriers, 1005 yards, and 6 TD’s. Pollard was ranked 23rd overall in terms of pass catching RB’s in the NFL who saw at least 45 targets. Pollard accumulated 55 receptions for 311 yards. In comparison Christian McCaffrey was targeted only 13 more times than Pollard. Not only did Pollard see plenty of targets in Dallas, he also only dropped 3 passes according to PFF. That’s a great sign of strength for the Titans and you can see how the pieces of the Titans offensive puzzle are starting to slide together. When factoring in projections for Will Levis I would be remiss to discount what second year Running Back Tyjae Spears means to Levis. Spears could be headed for a breakout season after playing remarkably well as second fiddle to former Titans legend Derrick Henry. Tyjae Spears was ranked 5th in the NFL in receiving grade for running backs according to PFF. His play was incredible as a rookie. He was able to be a difference maker on mostly passing downs, and was very efficient in doing so.
The Titans will undoubetdly be looking to get the ball in to the hands of as many playmakers as they can. Whether that be to a receiver, tight end, or running back. Lucky for the Titans there’s a plethora of options to choose from for second year QB Will Levis.
The Math
Let’s recap the key factors before getting into the math:
1- Coach Callahan will introduce a much more pass heavy and efficient game to help aid Levis’s growth ++
2- Levis should naturally be better than last year as he mentally and physically works on his game +
3- Levis’s OL/WR/RB rooms are vastly superior to last years talent to aid his projected output +++
Note: This assumes a fully healthy season for Will Levis
Levis’s completion percentage should hover around 65% (modestly) from 59% his rookie season due to the 3 key reasons for improvement.
This projection accounts that Levis will pass the ball 4% more than the Titans 2023 season passing totals. Remember, the Titans were at 59% passing last year while the 2022 Bengals were at 66%. The Titans had 490 Passing attempts from Tannehill, Levis, and Malik Willis in 2023.
By increasing the 490 pass attempts by 4% that would be 510 total pass attempts.
Levis’s average yards per game last year was 224. Adding a 4% increase in passing snaps per game should increase his yardage to around 231 ypg (assuming that not every ball thrown is accurate and/or a catch).
So far we can calculate four numbers: Completion percentage, total pass attempts, completions, and yards.
Now, with the 3 key factors ranging from improved coaching, Levis’s overall growth year-over-year, and the addition of playmakers and protection Levis should enjoy a cleaner pocket to increase his TD:INT ratio. A modest increase from 2:1 TD:INT to 2.5:1 ratio is closer to the average NFL quarterback. We also need to calculate his TD/Passing Attempts. We’ll calculate for Levis to be close to the league’s mode of .04 TD’s per attempt which we’ll use to gauge Levis’s TD:INT ratio with 2.5:1. For reference Levis had a .03 TD/Attempt ratio last year.
Thus, finally, we can come to a conclusive math based hypothesis for Levis’s passing numbers in 2024.
Will Levis (2024): 331/510 3927 yards 21 TD’s and 9 Interceptions
That’s a pretty good statline to have for a second year starter at QB. Although the TD’s seem low if Levis can break into the top half of NFL QB’s in TD/Attempt that number can increase his TD numbers to 26 with 10 Interceptions.
Will Levis still has much to prove to Titans fans after a roller coaster rookie year. However, fans should give Levis the benefit of the doubt. He dealt with a nearly impossible situation to succeed and showed promise with very little help. Levis can still certainly surpass or even underwhelm our projected stat totals. The Titans and their fans should be ecstatic, regardless, that Levis may be the potential long awaited franchise QB. By Jan 2025 the NFL and its fans will know if Levis has what it takes to lead a franchise for a decade plus. The anticipation for football is building ,and soon it will be placated with live action football in about sixty days. But for now, enjoy the hamburgers, hotdogs, and potato salad. Happy birthday, America!
