Countdown to Training Camp- Projecting Calvin Ridley’s 2024 Season
On this edition of Countdown to Training Camp we’ll examine and project Calvin Ridley’s impact for the Titans this upcoming season. Calvin Ridley was one of the earliest big splashes in all of free agency this year. After deciding between offers from the Jaguars, Patriots, and Titans Ridley ultimately chose Tennessee, after a breakout year, despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season. Speaking on that breakout year Ridley caught 76 balls for 1,016 yards, and 8 TDs for the Jaguars. That’s a sizable number that compares well to DeAndre Hopkins’s statline in 2023 as well.
The Titans will be looking for a superstar like year from Calvin Ridley. He will need to show that his age — 29 years young — won’t be an issue this year especially, or in the immediate future of his 4 year contract. If Calvin Ridley can have a big year with the Titans this season the Tennessee Titans could see themselves vying for playoff spot come December through January.
To examine and hypothesize Ridley’s statline we’ll analyze 3 key aspects:
HC Brian Callahan’s impact on the offense
Calvin Ridley’s Target Share
Will Levis’s Growth
First
Head Coach Brian Callahan will undoubtedly have the largest impact on Calvin Ridley’s statline. In last week’s article I wrote in depth about how Levis’s statline would be affected with the addition of Coach Callahan. Going back to the last full season of a healthy Joe Burrow the Cincinnatti Bengals passed the by 66% of all offensive snaps. The 2023 Jaguars passed the ball in a similar fashion 752 times over 1,166 snaps, which equates to roughly 65%. In addition, out of 582 targeted passes Calvin Ridley was targeted about 23% of the time. That’s nearly a quarter of all passing snaps. It shows that the Jaguars were very reliant on Calvin Ridley in the passing game. In contrast last years Titans passed the ball 59% of the time and DeAndre Hopkins was of course the leading receiving in an otherwise abysmal receiving corps. To understand just how abysmal the Titans receiving corps was Hopkins was responsible for nearly 30% of all passing targets. Next closest was Chig Okonkwo with 16% of all target shares.
Coach Callahan could see Ridley as more than just an outside receiver. Instead, as he’s alluded to before, being able to move him throughout the offense and find ways to get his hands on the ball. Coach Callahan saw Ja’Marr Chase — one of the leagues top receivers — used nearly 25% of his snaps in the slot in Cincinnati. Whereas, in Jacksonville Ridley was lined up in the slot close to 20% of the time. In Cincinnati Ja’Marr Chase had nearly 25% of the target share with one of the leagues best receiving corps. Ridley could see something close to that this season. Keep in mind former Passing Game Coordinator for the Jaguars, Nick Holz, is now the offensive coordinator for the Titans where Ridley had nearly 23% of the target share. If Ridley’s target share can stay at 23% I’d be surprised. For the sake of this article we’ll estimate it’ll stay the same as 23% next season.
Coach Callahan has already stated that Calvin Ridley is one of the best route runners he’s ever been around. As the offense takes shape this season first year Head Coach Brian Callahan wants the passing game to have “great detail…have matchups in their advantage… and have “route definition and route spacing.” Those characteristics were attrbuted well before Calvin Ridley signed on the dotted line in mid-March. It’s great to see how Coach Callahan’s plan at wide receiver came to fruition with a player that fits all the checkmarks of his offensive philosophy.
Second
Both Hopkins and Ridley will see less targets this year as the Titans will look to pass the ball more. Although that seems contradictory the Titans are moving to a much more pass heavy game with more weapons than they can count. The following players should all have over 70 targets this season: Ridley, Hopkins, Boyd, Pollard, and Spears. It’s possible Okonkwo gets there this year if either Pollard or Spears hits 70 receptions. Last year Okonkwo was the second leading pass catcher on the team with 74 targets and 528 yards which gave him 14% target share.
If we were to give Ridley, Hopkins, Boyd, Pollard/Spears only 70 targets each we’d see 350 targets just to those 4.5 players alone. However, it’s much more likely that the Titans end up passing the ball around 500+ pass attempts. Sprinkle in a Josh Whyle, NWI, Treylon Burks, or even Kyle Phillips and that sounds about right.
Circling back to how this plays out for Ridley…Ridley should see upwards of 100+ targets but not much more than that unless we see a significant drop in DeAndre Hopkins usage this year. Hopkins is getting up there in age — now 32 — which won’t play in his favor. However, if we were to give Ridley a conservative 110 targets he should have somewhere between 75-90 receptions this season. The next question we need to ask is how proficient Ridley can be with those targets. Throughout Ridley’s career he’s averaged 13.5 yards per catch. Last year he averaged 13.4 ypc which was his 3rd highest of his career. A conservative estimate for 2024 will be 13.2 ypc for Ridley. Although, that’s lower than last year he may be used more than as a strictly outside option as previously mentioned.
Third
Ultimately, this entire season for Calvin Ridley will come down to how Will Levis can operate the offense. As I previously wrote on Will Levis’s 2024 season I expect him to take a big jump this next season. In part, mostly, due to the additions to include but not limited to: Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Brian Callahan. Levis will have an incredibly different offense than last year to operate with. This 2024 offense will actually give Will Levis a chance to be successful this season. Levis’s growth is a huge component to dissect how Ridley’s season will play out in 2024.
Will Levis should improve substantially and I expect he’ll develop chemistry with Ridley quickly as the season goes. Ridley can act as Levis’s safety blanket when needed similar to how Hopkins was utilized last year. Levis has shown that he’s not afraid to trust his receivers to go up and get it. Ridley and Levis’s connection will be monumental to the Titans’ success this year. If the two can get in sync and have trust for one another big things can be in store for the Titans this season.
The Math
Let’s recap the key factors before getting into the math:
1- Coach Callahan will add a new emphasis to the passing game with Ridley +
2- Calvin Ridley’s target share will take a hit -
3- Levis’s growth and trust in Ridley +
Note: This assumes a fully healthy season for Calvin Ridley
Ridley’s target share should take a dip this season which will undoubetedly affect his receptions. Previously, I estimated his receptions should be around 75-90. We’ll average that out and say he will have 80 receptions. Now that we have his receptions we can figure how many yards he’ll accumulate this season through the air.
As previously mentioned Ridley should take a small dip in his ypc. I estimated that he should have around 13.2 ypc this season. Estimating Ridley’s TD’s this season is the most difficult portion to nail down. However, if we take last Ridley’s 2023 season and divide his receptions by touchdowns we can find a decent number to use. Ridley scored a touchdown, roughly, on every 10th catch. Now we can get into some solid numbers for Ridley’s statline.
Calvin Ridley (2024): 80 receptions, 1056 yards, and 8 TD’s.
Estimating Ridley’s stats is a fun way to entertain ourselves throughout the offseason. If Ridley can earn those estimated numbers that would be win for the Titans. Yes, those aren’t superstar numbers but it’s necessary to keep in mind that the biggest problem that Ridley will have to face will come down to his own teammates digging into his target share.
