2024 NFL Draft: Identifying trade partners for the Titans
The wait is almost over. The NFL Draft will be here in less than a week and all the speculation that comes with it will also soon be set to close. This time next week we’ll be discussing how player “[First Name] [Last Name]” fits in with the Titans and where the Titans will go at pick 38. There’s much speculation if Tennessee will even pick at 7 overall. It’s a valid question with so many roster holes plaguing the Titans. We’ll do a deep dive of various possibilities the Titans may have by trading back in the draft. Who are those teams that might trade up with Tennessee and what that might cost?
Before we get into it a few things.
1. The Fitzgerald-Spielberger Trade Chart is how I’ll evaluate the trade value. There’s no one universal chart and every year teams get chided for getting “fleeced” in draft day trades. An example would be the recent Vikings-Texans trade which equated a difference of around 500 points in favor of the Texans. However, perceptually it appears that the Vikings got the better of the Texans.
2. We’ll look at what teams could be desperate enough to move up in the draft for a QB. The teams listed below are teams that are shaky at best with the current QBs on their roster.
1. Minnesota Vikings (Pick 11): Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, Jared Hall
2. Denver Broncos (Pick 12): Jared Stidham, Ben DiNucci
3. Las Vegas Raiders (Pick 13): Gardner Minshew, Aiden O’Connell, Anthony Brown
Looking at the list above it works out that each of these teams are grouped together just outside the top 10 spot. It’s certainly in the realm of possibility that one of these QBs could fall and the asking price from Arizona and the LA Chargers may be too high to move up. Minnesota currently has the best ammo to make a move with picks 11 and 23. Whereas, Las Vegas has the second-best ammunition out of this bunch with picks 12, 44, and 77 in the top 100. However, unlike the Vikings, the Raiders might be the easiest to make a trade back with, more on that later. The Broncos are in the worst position to trade up in the draft. The Broncos only have their 13th pick, and thanks to the Sean Payton trade last year, they don’t pick again till pick 76.
Let’s examine what it would take for the Minnesota Vikings to move up to 7th overall looking at the Vikings’ first four picks are 11, 23, 108, 109. The Titans’ 7th pick has a trade value of 2014. Minnesota’s 11th pick (1,785) and 23rd pick (1,411) has a combined trade value of 3196. That’s a huge overvalue to move up 4 spots for Minnesota. The difference of which is 1,182points. That’s a substantial overpay for the Vikings. What we know is the Titans are already missing their 2024 3rd pick (Levis Trade) and their 2025 3rd (Sneed trade). The Titans really could use an extra day 2 pick this year and/or next year. However, what’s better than a day 2 pick? Another day 1 pick. To make up that difference of 1,182 points for 11+23 in a trade for the 7th-overall pick the Titans can look to package their 38th pick. Which, according to the trade chart, is 1157 in value- A near even trade. Knowing Ran as the Titans GM, I’d say that’s the floor. The Titans could also ask in return for the Vikings 3rd-round pick next year to solidify the deal. This would be a preferable trade back option. The Titans could potentially add a Latham/Olu/Fuaga/Fautanu at 11 and a stud DL (Newton or Byron Murphy), a freaky Edge (Latu/Robinson), or a dominant WR (Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell). The Titans will almost assuredly miss out on a blue-chip type of player but could get two solid players with the bonus of the coveted 5th-year option. Ultimately, I don’t think the Vikings would make this move, and in fact it makes more sense to execute at 4th (AZ) or 5th (LAC). Which is why I personally feel this might be the toughest trade to get finalized.
Analyzing the Broncos’ current state they appear to be in the worst shape of the three in terms of their QB room. Jared Stidham and Ben DiNucci have combined for 66 regular season completions. They hold the 12th-overall pick which carries a trade value of 1,741 points. Currently, the Broncos are 300 points shy of picking up the phone and calling Ran. They’re missing their 2nd round pick but have the 76th overall pick. The Broncos throwing in 12+76 = 2,546 on the trade value chart probably isn’t enough to move the needle. Ran isn’t moving down 5 spots and missing out on a blue-chip player for a singular mid 3rd-round pick. They’d need to throw in a possible 2025 2nd or 3rd-round pick to make Ran even consider moving down. The Broncos QB desperation may ultimately be their downfall if they’re going to strike a deal. Another route the Broncos could take is packaging 12 and a starting-level player of need. Here’s a list of a few names that could be added to the trade: Zach Smith(DE), Baron Browning (DE), and Alex Singleton (ILB). If the Titans can nab any of these players, 12 overall, and 76 overall,that should be considered a solid win.
Next up is the Las Vegas Raiders. They seem to be the least desperate of between the Broncos and Vikings. They signed Gardner Minshew early in free agency. He played admirably this past season after going 6-6 to end the season after Anthony Richardson went down in week five. Minshew is clearly a bridge QB and may give the Raiders the flexibility to try and snag a QB on day 2. This would be similar to Tannehill and Levis last year. However, if they’re to execute that strategy the Raiders would need to have: 1. Michael Penix Jr. and/or Bo Nix are available at the start of day two and 2. That no one jumps ahead of them i.e. NYG or NO for one of those QBs. Each of those two scenarios might come to fruition, but that’s a risk the Raiders must weigh. A trade package of 13 and 44 (2,782 points) is an overpay on the Raider’s part. However, for the Titans to accept the trade Ran would need to be enamored with the value and feel comfortable about the prospects available to them at 13 and 44. The parameters of that trade could look like 13, 44, and a 2025 3rd round pick. Executing this trade would give the Titans 3 top 50 picks (13, 38, and 44) in a deep draft at their biggest needs: OT, WR, and EDGE. This is why the Raiders would have the most straightforward and easiest path for a trade. Although the Titans will undoubtedly miss out on a blue-chip player the possibility of exiting day two with 3 solid players is certainly enticing.
**Bonus Round**
Two trades we could see at 7 that don’t include a QB:
1. Chicago Bears (Pick 9) Target: Dallas Turner
2. New York Jets (Pick 10) Target: Rome Odunze/Malik Nabers
The Chicago Bears, after drafting Caleb Williams (duh), could look to aid the other side of the football by targeting Dallas Turner. This would require the Bears to jump ahead of the Falcons. Who, much like the Titans and Alt, have been slotted to take Turner for weeks now in 90%+ of mock drafts. This would give Tennessee to possibly still pick up a solid blue-chip player. If the Bears trade up for Turner that would still leave either a possible Joe Alt, Rome Odunze, or Malik Nabers still being available at the 9th pick. It’s likely the trade would net a possible 3rd which comes out to a 685 point overpay on the Bears part. The Titans could also send their 6th round pick (182 overall) which carries 363 points in trade value. Which only makes the Bears a slight overpay on their part for the best defensive player in the draft.
You know who would look good in those new Jets uniforms? Insert Rome Odunze into this Jets offense and watch it takeoff. A healthy Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Rome Odunze, and that stout defense would set the sports world aflame. Odunze is a clear cut WR1 who has all the tools and traits to make an immediate impact. Unlike the Cowboys the Jets are actually “All-in” this year, as they should be. The Jets may want to jump ahead of the Bears who they might perceive as a threat to land Odunze. They could look to jump up only a few spots to 7 overall. The 10th overall pick holds a trade value of 1,833. If the Jets want to make a move to 7 overall, there should be no doubt it would cost at least their 3rd round pick and maybe a future 3rdround pick as well. That would give the Titans 10, 38, and 72 + a future day two pick. The Titans could still have a chance to draft a blue-chip player here if Alt is still on the board if they decide to trade with the Jets.
Overall, irrespective of what happens on draft day I don’t expect Ran’s phone to stay silent. Whether those calls come from a QB needy team that sees a QB falling, or even a blue-chip player available at 7, the Titans will have plenty of options to build a solid foundation from this 2024 draft class.
